RM Online - A quick look into my crystal ball

Someone once described the future as that period of time when our businesses are very profitable, our family relationships secure and our happiness guaranteed. In reality, most of us find the future pretty much the same as the past. We meet it because we must, but we make few changes today that will redirect our tomorrows.

In the business world, there are many who claim we can predict the future. There are those who propose that the best way to predict the future is to understand the past. Others suggest that it is futile to examine the past to predict the future. They say we must study the present and project the current situation into tomorrow.

There is another group that thinks little of the future. This is the Albert Einstein School. Pay no attention to the future and it will come soon enough.

I line up between the first two schools. There is value in understanding the past, but I also believe

in evaluating present trends to predict future results.

A few good guesses

I've been out on the limb before. In 1989, four years before we wrote Up Against the Wal-Marts, I predicted that Wal-Mart would become the largest retailer in the United States.

At the time, Wal-Mart was only 60 percent of the size of the largest retailer, Sears, Roebuck and Co.

In 1992, I predicted that Best Buy Co., the electronics, appliance and computer store chain would overtake the industry leader (Circuit City) within five years. It happened in four. When I made that prediction, Best Buy was one-third as large as Circuit City.

In 1993, when Wal-Mart's sales were in the mid $50 billion range, I predicted the company would hit the $100 billion mark by the year 2000. Fiscal year 1997 brought more than $104 billion and sales jumped 12 percent to nearly $118 billion in 1998.

In 1994, I predicted that Home Depot, the Atlanta-based home-improvement chain, would be the first U.S. retailer to reach $20 billion in sales within 20 years of opening its first store. In early 1998 (its 20th year) Home Depot's sales reached $24 billion.

A few good misses

I've missed a few along the way as well. In 1993, I predicted the continuing decline and possible demise of Sears, Roebuck and Co. The chain was struggling, closing stores and cutting jobs. It was a good bet. However, new leadership turned the company around by focusing on customer needs, smaller neighborhood stores, and upgraded image and improved training and service. Sears is recovering nicely.

Then in 1995, I predicted a merger between Kmart and Target (the Dayton Hudson Co.). Kmart was struggling, but had some great locations. Target had a better retail concept and image it seemed a natural union. It hasn't happened.

A shot in the dark

I'm going to take my trusty saw and go out on the limb again. First, with Wal-Mart: I predict that Wal-Mart will become the sales leader among American companies by the year 2005. (As I write this it's in fourth place, $60 billion behind the current leader General Motors Corp.)

Second, I predict that one of these stores - Wards or Kmart - will be merged or gone by the end of the year 2000. Watch for it.

Third, I predict that some of the big-box merchants will take in some strange bedfellows in order to fuel double-digit growth in the next five years.

Hypermarts selling cars? A retailer buying a high-tech manufacturer?

A big box merging with an energy company? The next five years will be fun!